Wednesday, December 14, 2005

$ 55 as the new floor for oil prices?

This Week in Petroleum sums up three different takes on medium to long term oil prices and concludes that if there are still any illusions about going below $40 a barrel any time soon, we should get over those.
Earlier this week, three different organizations outlined their views of the future in global oil markets. Perhaps most interesting, was that each of the three looked at different future time horizons, resulting in different conclusions.
...as OPEC looks towards the first quarter of 2006, it foresees global oil markets as being well supplied, albeit at much higher prices than seen previously during this time of year.
...the AEO2006 reference case includes much higher world oil prices than were projected in AEO2005. In other words, EIA expects oil markets to remain tight (meaning spare production capacity will continue to remain low, both upstream and downstream) causing oil prices to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
...(Oil Market Report) OMR highlighted the IEA’s view of oil markets through 2010 and concluded that there is “ … no strong evidence of a significant change in current [oil] market conditions over the next five years.”
The cat is out of the bag, I guess. I hope that spinning will stop now.

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